Novartis considers bid for Aventis. This article presents a unique case of two significant pharmaceuticals players potentially bidding for a merger with Aventis and its impact on market shares.

Booty currently estimates there is a 10 percent chance of Aventis remaining as a standalone company, a 30 percent chance of a white knight bidder taking it over and a 60 percent chance of Sanofi prevailing with a higher offer.

There were market rumors in Paris, Zurich and London on Thursday it was considering offering 0.9 of its shares plus 35 euros in cash for each Aventis share, or roughly 67 euros per share. Sanofi's stock-and-cash bid, which has been rejected by Aventis, is currently worth around 47.3 billion euros ($58.16 billion), or 59 euros per Aventis share. That combination would create the world's third-largest drug firm. Novartis investors nervous Initial reaction to Novartis's statement was negative, amid concern over the price of a potential deal and the risk overall sales growth might slow, and the group's shares fell 0.5 percent to 54.10 Swiss francs, following heavy losses on Thursday.